A NEW study by the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank, has found that although a majority of Americans are generally upbeat about the country’s long-term outlook, most of them make gloomy forecasts when questioned about specific policies. Pew began its poll of 2,500 adults by asking them to think broadly about the future of America in 30 years’ time. Some 56% of them described themselves as optimistic about that prospect.

Yet that figure might simply reflect Americans’ patriotism, since Pew asked them to evaluate the country as a whole. Most struggled to identify any aspect of life that they thought would improve save, per- haps, for race relations. A clear majority believed that public education would get worse, health care would grow less affordable and the politi- cal climate would become more divisive. Three-fifths thought that by 2050 America would probably suffer another terrorist attack as bad as that on September 11th 2001.Their economic predictions were particu- larly gloomy. Only 20% of respondents reckoned that living standards in 2050 would be substantially higher than today. Some 73% thought that the gap between rich Americans and poor ones would get wider.